IPM workshop | July-August 2023 Missoula (Montana)

[Michael Schaub]

Intermediate-level workshop (in person only)
Bayesian integrated population modelling (IPM) using JAGS

Instructors: Dan Gibson(1), Thomas Riecke(2)

1) Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
2) Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA

Date: 31 July – 4 August 2023

Venue: W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula

Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and JAGS

Integrated population models (IPMs) represent the powerful combination, typically around a single matrix population model, of multiple data sources that are informative about the dynamics of an animal population. Typical IPMs combine one or more time-series of counts with other data sets that are directly informative about survival probabilities, such as ring-recovery or capture-recapture, or about productivity, such as nest survey data. However, many other sources of demographic information may be envisioned instead or in addition, including age-at-death data, radio tracking data, occupancy or replicated point count data. For non-statisticians the only practical manner to develop and fit IPMs is by using BUGS software (JAGS and Nimble). This course is a practical and hands-on introduction to developing and fitting integrated population models.
Beyond IPMs, the course also provides a broad introduction for ecologists and wildlife managers to a wide variety of models fit using BUGS software and as documented in the IPM book.

Contents include the following topics:
1. Basic introduction:
• Hierarchical models as an overarching theme of population modelling, including IPMs
• Bayesian analysis of hierarchical models
• Introduction to BUGS software in the context of GLMs and traditional random-effects models
2. Ingredients of Integrated Population Models:
• State-space models for time-series of counts
• Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for estimating survival probabilities
• Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition probabilities
3. Integrated Population Models (IPMs)
• Introduction to matrix population models and their analysis with BUGS
• Theory of integrated population models
• Various case studies which differ in complexity and in the data types that are combined

In this intermediate-level workshop about 80% of the time is spent on lecturing and 20% on solving exercises. No previous experience with BUGS software, or Bayesian statistics, is assumed. However, a good working knowledge of modern regression methods (linear models, GLMs) and of program R is required. Moreover, a basic understanding of capture-recapture and/or occupancy models is highly desirable.

To apply, send an e-mail to the instructors.