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Integrated population modeling workshop | Aberdeen June 2018

PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 3:29 am
by Michael Schaub
Intermediate-level workshop
Bayesian integrated population modeling (IPM) using JAGS and BUGS

Instructors: Michael Schaub & Marc Kéry, Swiss Ornithological Institute;
Chris Sutherland, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Date: 25 – 29 June 2018
Venue: University of Aberdeen, Scotland
Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and WinBUGS, JAGS or OpenBUGS
Registration: Euro 500 (normal rate), Euro 250 (student rate)

Integrated population models (IPMs) represent the powerful combination, in a single Leslie-type of model, of multiple data sources that are informative about the dynamics of an animal population (Besbeas et al. 2002; Schaub et al. 2007). Typical IPMs combine one or more time-series of counts with another data set that is directly informative about survival probabilities, such as ring-recovery or capture-recapture. However, many other sources of demographic information may be envisioned instead or in addition, including age-at-death data, occupancy or replicated point count data. Currently, for non-statisticians the only practical manner to develop and fit IPMs is by using BUGS software (JAGS, WinBUGS, OpenBUGS).

This course is a practical and hands-on introduction to developing and fitting integrated population models using BUGS software. It is based on the successful book by Kéry & Schaub, Bayesian Population Analysis using WinBUGS (Academic Press, 2012), which will be handed out as part of the course.
Beyond IPMs, the course also provides an in-depth introduction for ecologists and wildlife managers to a wide variety of models fit using BUGS software and as documented in the BPA book.

Contents include the following topics:
1. Basic introduction:
• Hierarchical models as an overarching theme of population modeling, including IPMs
• Bayesian analysis of hierarchical models
• Introduction to BUGS software in the context of generalised linear models (GLM) and traditional random-effects models
2. Ingredients of Integrated Population Models:
• State-space models
• Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for estimating survival probabilities
• Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition probabilities
3. Integrated Population Models (IPMs)
• Introduction to matrix population models and their analysis with BUGS
• Theory of integrated population models
• Various case studies which differ in complexity and in the data types that are combined

About 80% of the time is spent on lecturing and 20% on solving exercises. No previous experience with BUGS software, or Bayesian statistics, is assumed. However, this is NOT a beginner's, but an intermediate-level workshop and a good working knowledge both of modern regression methods (ANOVA, ANCOVA, GLMs, GLMM) and of program R is required. Moreover, a basic understanding of capture-recapture and/or occupancy models and of matrix projection models (Leslie matrices) is desirable.

The registration for the workshop will open towards the end of 2017.