Bayesian integrated population modeling (IPM) using JAGS
Instructors: Michael Schaub & Marc Kéry, Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach
Date: 23 – 27 October 2017
Venue: University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA
Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and JAGS
Registration: USD$ 600 (normal rate), USD$ 300 (student rate)
Integrated population models (IPMs) represent the powerful combination, in a single Leslie-type of model, of multiple data sources that are informative about the dynamics of a population (Besbeas et al. 2002; Schaub et al. 2007). Typical IPMs combine one or more time-series of counts with another data set that is directly informative about survival probabilities, such as ring-recovery or capture-recapture. However, many other sources of demographic information may be envisioned instead or in addition, including age-at-death data, occupancy or replicated point count data. Currently, for non-statisticians the only practical way to develop and fit IPMs is by using BUGS software (JAGS, WinBUGS, OpenBUGS, Nimble).
This course is a practical and hands-on introduction to developing and fitting integrated population models using BUGS software. It is based on the successful book by Kéry & Schaub, Bayesian Population Analysis using WinBUGS (Academic Press, 2012), which will be handed out as part of the course.
Beyond IPMs, the course also provides an introduction for ecologists and wildlife managers to a wide variety of models fit using BUGS software and as documented in the BPA book.
Contents include the following topics:
1. Basic introduction:
• Hierarchical models as an overarching theme of population modeling, including IPMs
• Bayesian analysis of hierarchical models
• Introduction to BUGS software in the context of generalised linear models (GLM) and traditional random-effects models
2. Ingredients of Integrated Population Models:
• State-space models in population dynamics
• Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for estimating survival probabilities
• Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition probabilities
3. Integrated Population Models (IPMs)
• Introduction to matrix population models and their analysis with BUGS
• Theory of integrated population models
• IPM case studies which differ in complexity and in the data types combined
About 80% of the time is spent on lecturing and 20% on solving exercises. No previous experience with BUGS software, or Bayesian statistics, is assumed. However, this is not a beginner's, but an intermediate-level workshop and a good working knowledge both of modern regression methods (ANOVA, ANCOVA, GLMs, GLMM) and of program R is required. Moreover, a basic understanding of capture-recapture and/or occupancy models and of matrix projection models (Leslie matrices) is desirable.
Send your application to Michael Schaub (firstname.lastname@example.org), with CC to Marc Kéry (email@example.com; describing your background and knowledge in statistical modeling, R and BUGS software, and capture-recapture, by 31 May 2017 at the latest. Workshop invitations will be sent out immediately afterwards.