Intermediate level workshop
Bayesian integrated population modeling (IPM) using BUGS and JAGS
Instructors: Michael Schaub & Marc Kéry, Swiss Ornithological Institute; Res Altwegg, University of Cape Town; Sarah J. Converse, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center.
Date: 19–23 October 2015
Venue: Kirstenbosch Research Centre, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape Town, South Africa
Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and WinBUGS, JAGS or OpenBUGS
Costs: 600 USD (reduced fees will apply to delegates from African countries)
Integrated population models (IPM) represent the powerful combination, in a single Leslie-type of model, of different data sources that are informative about the dynamics of an animal population (Besbeas et al. 2002; Schaub et al. 2007). Typical IPMs combine one or more time-series of counts with another data set that is directly informative about survival probabilities, such as ring-recovery or capture-recapture. However, many other sources of demographic information may be envisioned instead or in addition, including age-at-death data, occupancy or replicated point count data. Currently, for non-statisticians the only practical manner to develop and fit an IPM is using BUGS software (WinBUGS, OpenBUGS, JAGS).
This intermediate-level course is a practical and hands-on introduction to developing and fitting integrated population models using BUGS software. It is based on the successful book by Kéry & Schaub, Bayesian Population Analysis using WinBUGS (Academic Press, 2012), a copy of which is included in the course fee. The course also provides a thorough introduction for ecologists and wildlife managers of a very wide variety of models fit using BUGS software and as documented in the BPA book.
Contents include the following topics:
- Hierarchical models as an overarching theme of population modeling, including IPMs
- Bayesian analysis of hierarchical models
- Introduction to BUGS software in the context of generalised linear models (GLM) and traditional random-effects models
Ingredients of IPMs
- State-space models
- Cormack-Jolly-Seber and ring-recovery models for estimating survival probabilities
- Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition probabilities
- Site-occupancy models and binomial mixture models
- Various case studies which differ in complexity and in the data types that are combined
In this intermediate-level workshop 80% of the time is spent on lecturing and 20% on solving exercises. No previous experience with program WinBUGS, or Bayesian statistics, is assumed. However, a good working knowledge of modern regression methods (ANOVA, ANCOVA, generalised linear models) and of program R and at least some basic knowledge about capture-recapture and/or occupancy models is required.
The closing date for registration is 31 July 2015. The registration form is available on http://www.vogelwarte.ch/workshops.html