Bayesian integrated population modeling (IPM) using BUGS and JAGS
Instructors: Michael Schaub & Marc Kéry, Swiss Ornithological Institute
Date: 30 March – 3 April 2015
Venue: La Tour du Valat, Camargue, France (www.tourduvalat.org/en)
Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and WinBUGS, JAGS or OpenBUGS
Registration: 500 € (includes workshop fee, lunch at Tour du Valat, daily shuttle Arles-Tour du Valat)
Integrated population models (IPMs) represent the powerful combination, in a single Leslie-type of model, of different data sources that are informative about the dynamics of an animal population (Besbeas et al. 2002; Schaub et al. 2007). Typical IPMs combine one or more time-series of counts with another data set that is directly informative about survival probabilities, such as ring-recovery or capture-recapture. However, many other sources of demographic information may be envisioned instead or in addition, including age-at-death data, occupancy or replicated point count data. Currently, for non-statisticians the only practical manner to develop and fit an IPM is using BUGS software (WinBUGS, OpenBUGS, JAGS).
This course is a practical and hands-on introduction to developing and fitting integrated population models using BUGS software. It is based on the successful book by Kéry & Schaub, Bayesian Population Analysis using WinBUGS (Academic Press, 2012), which will be handed out as part of the course.
Beyond IPMs, the course also provides an in-depth introduction for ecologists and wildlife managers of a very wide variety of models fit using BUGS software and as documented in the BPA book.
Contents include the following topics:
• Hierarchical models as an overarching theme of population modeling, including IPMs
• Bayesian analysis of hierarchical models
• Introduction to BUGS software in the context of generalised linear models (GLM) and traditional random-effects models
Ingredients of Integrated Population Models
• State-space models
• Cormack-Jolly-Seber and ring-recovery models models for estimating survival probabilities
• Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition probabilities
• Site-occupancy models and binomial mixture models
Integrated Population models (IPMs)
• Various case studies which differ in complexity and in the data types that are combined
In this intermediate-level workshop about 3/4 of the time are spent on lecturing and 1/4 on solving exercises. No previous experience with program WinBUGS, or Bayesian statistics, is assumed. However, a good working knowledge of modern regression methods (ANOVA, ANCOVA, GLMs) and of program R is required. Moreover, a basic understanding of capture-recapture and/or occupancy models is desirable. Send your application to Arnaud Béchet (firstname.lastname@example.org), with CC to Michael Schaub (email@example.com; describing your background and knowledge in statistical modeling, R and WinBUGS/OpenBUGS/JAGS and capture-recapture, by 31 January 2015 at the latest. Workshop invitations will be sent out very soon afterwards.