Hi Remi and forum participants,

I am currently running a multi-event model of survival, return, breeding probability and breeding success with unobservable states and uncertainty applied to breeding outcome for 3 populations of albatrosses (20-year dataset).

I have incoporated individual covariate data in the Gemaco to test the effects of different environmental covariates on these vital rates. For several of the covariates tested the model seems to be estimating well. Some time steps the parameters appear to be non-estimatable and showing confidence intervals from 0 to 1.

The problem I am having is that with two of eight covariates tested on breeding success of one species I am not seeing any estimates of breeding success on several time steps. For example, where I expect to see estimates from time step 1 to 20 in the "Reduced Set of Parameters" output, I am only seeing estimates for time steps 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 20. If these were not estimable than wouldn't I see an estimate with broad confidence intervals? I suspected an error in the covariate file and have subsequently checked this and it appears to be the same as previous working covariates. Happy to provide Gepat matrices and Gemaco sentences if you think it is required.

I am a novice with E-Surge, therefore apologise in advance for lack of detail. Any help is greatly apprecitated.

Thank-you.

Jaimie Cleeland

Quantitative Antarctic Science PhD Program

University of Tasmania/Australian Antarctic Division

Private Bag 129, Hobart 7001

jaimie.cleeland@utas.edu.au

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jaimie_Cleeland