I am working with a dataset that I manipulated into seasons and pooled into weekly surveys. What I am really looking for is a detection probability to use in a different analysis, but the models I have tried in RMark all have high c hat values, from 9 on up. So I changed it back from binary 1/0 indicators for captures to count data and have tried to do a Poisson, Zero inflated Poisson, and Negative Binomial in unmarked to compare AICs. The NB fit best but still gave an alpha value of -0.9.

The variance is very high, even when I just run constants. Although there are lots of 0's and NA's in my data, I don't think ZINB is appropriate for my data set.( I also don't think QAIC can save it as it is so high, but I also don't understand why RMark isn't giving QAIC values even though chat is greater than 1) I feel like I have run out of options and I am in a time crunch. Any advice on how to go about getting a decent detection probability would be appreciated.

Thanks