I mean that the upper and lower credibility intervals are close to the estimated value all time, except when the estimated value reach the value 1. In that moment the ucl value is 1 and the lcl value is 0.
The results are from a simulated capture-recapture history for a multistate model. I'm doing it for assessing the accuracy of capture-recapture models in some situations. Specifically, I simulated a capture history with 3 status (A, B and C), and I ran the next model (phi{t}, p{.}, psi{.}).
I think that the wide range of the lcl and ucl are not related with the code I used in RMark. Nevertheless, I put the code below just in case.
Thanks in advance,
Code:
(1) Specify the model
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model_process <- process.data (input, model="Multistrata")
(2) Specify the model parameters
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Phi.time=list(formula=~time+stratum)
p.dot=list(formula=~1+stratum)
Psi.dot=list(formula=~1)
(3) Calculate some transition probabilities by substraction
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model_make=make.design.data(model_process, parameters=list(Psi=list(subtract.stratum=c("A", "C", "B"))))
(4) Fix as 0 the transitions from B and C to A because such transitions are impossible:
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model_make$Psi=model_make$Psi[!(model_make$Psi$stratum=="B" & model_make$Psi$tostratum=="A"),]
model_make$Psi=model_make$Psi[!(model_make$Psi$stratum=="C" & model_make$Psi$tostratum=="A"),]
(5) Run the model
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model_mark <- mark (model_process, model_make, model.parameters = list(S=Phi.time, p=p.dot, Psi=Psi.dot))