by Bill Kendall » Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:32 pm
Sorry, that chapter of the MARK book needs to be updated. You can find a more complete explanation of the MSORD model, including residence time, in Kendall et al. (2019, Ecological Monographs).
The gist, though, is that Method 1 uses both arrival time probabilities (pent) and persistence probabilities (phi), to estimate expected residence time. Moreover, it assumes that your sampling effort matches with the arrival of the first individuals and the departure of the last.
Method 2 is based only on persistence probabilities and makes sense to use when persistence is only a function of how long the individual has already been there (e.g., renesting for a sea turtle is only a function of how many clutches have been laid to date, a bird at a spring stopover is there only long enough to build up sufficient reserves for nesting, etc.).
More detailed assumptions can be found in the paper.