Has this problem been resolved? We are also experiencing it with our POPAN JS analysis. In addition to the deviance residual plot, the problem also appears in the Observed and Expected when I select "List Observed and Expected in Excel" but not in "List Observed and Expected in Editor". I am concerned that the AIC and model rankings are affected; I am a bit less worried about residual plots.
Our analysis is complex because there are many groups (n groups = 21) to allow us to fit age models and to fix parameters to reflect the known timing and number of released individuals in our study and to fix detectability for radio-tracked individuals. I have simulated a simpler dataset that reproduces a similar (but not identical) problem. The simulated data INP file has 68 lines, 5 occasions, and 10 groups (1 batch each of males and females released prior to each occasion) with constant p and phi varying by sex and constant over intervals (if helpful, I would be happy post the encounter histories etc,). All pent and all N parameters are fixed to known values as described in this post
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4136The first several rows and columns of the "List Observed and Expected in Excel" output look like:
- Code: Select all
Encounter Male 1 Male 1 Male 2 Male 2 Male 3 Male 3
History Observed Expected Observed Expected Observed Expected
11110 0 0.24733421 0 0.21985263 0 0.19237105
69561 0 69561 0 69561 0 69561
11100 0 0.53885134 0 0.47897897 0 0.4191066
22982 0 22982 0 22982 0 22982
10100 0 0.70136933 0 0.62343941 0 0.54550948
69933 0 69933 0 69933 0 69933
10010 0 0.41902486 0 0.37246654 0 0.32590822
85648 0 85648 0 85648 0 85648
Obviously numbers like 69933 are neither encounter histories nor valid expected values. Our actual data residual output does have encounter histories repeated as expected values, so that is a difference in the simulated data. I don't know what the source of "69933" is. For the simulated data, the first several rows and columns of the "List Observed and Expected in Editor" output look like:
- Code: Select all
Encounter Group 1 Group 1 Group 2 Group 2 Group 3 Group 3
Histories Observed Expected Observed Expected Observed Expected
11110 0 0.24733421 0 0.21985263 0 0.19237105
11100 0 0.53885134 0 0.47897897 0 0.4191066
10100 0 0.70136933 0 0.62343941 0 0.54550948
10010 0 0.41902486 0 0.37246654 0 0.32590822
10000 2 3.515202 0 3.124624 0 2.734046
1110 0 0.71069309 1 0.63172719 0 0.55276129
1101 0 0.49377214 0 0.43890857 0 0.384045
1100 0 1.5483419 0 1.3763039 0 1.204266
These seem normal to me but it's the same weird values in the Excel output version that also end up being used to in the residual plot. Are they also used to calculate model deviance and possibly AIC or chat values?
For what it's worth, the estimated parameter values were a very close match to the simulated values so it seems that the model is fitted correctly. I would appreciate any insight into this, because I am stumped!