Bias caused by even flow temporary emigration

questions concerning analysis/theory using program MARK

Bias caused by even flow temporary emigration

Postby RBoys » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:47 am

Dear PhiDot,

I have searched a lot and cannot find any answer to these questions, so I am hoping that someone here can help.

I have used POPAN and MSORD models on some data and have found that even flow temporary emigration is the best fit for the data. I want to be able to discuss the bias that my estimates may have from MSORD and POPAN model based on this type of temporary emigration. However, I am having trouble finding many MSORD or even flow temporary emigration biases written in papers. The closest I have found is the paper 'Estimating temporary emigration using capture-recapture data with Pollocks Robust Design'. In this there is a paragraph that states:

'When the full-likelihood approach of Kendall et al. (1995) (Eq. 2) is used to analyze capture-recapture data collected under the robust design, completely random temporary emigration will produce biased estimates, because the capture probability parameters of the closed and open portions of the likelihood no longer reflect the same underlying quantity. Capture probability estimates are negatively biased in this situation, as were survival rate estimates in our numerical examples.'

I believe that this would not bias the results in MSORD because the capture probability parameters would still reflect the same quantity in both primary and secondary session, is this correct?

However, the paper also states that if temporary emigration is completely random, then estimates related with the super population in a JS model would be unbiased. However, there seems to be no literature to discuss the bias caused by even flow temporary emigration. So I am not sure how this would effect parameter estimates in POPAN?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated!
RBoys
 
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