Quantitative Methods for the Study and Management of Avian
Populations: Evolution,
Current State and Prognosis
James D. Nichols
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The tradition of the EURING meetings has been to focus on quantitative methods for use
in the study and management of bird populations. The EURING meetings have emphasized
estimation methods, an important component of a scientific process that also includes
development of models of ecological processes and, in the case of management and
conservation, development of decision-theoretic methods. I will discuss the evolution,
current state and prognosis for 3 classes of estimation methods (band-recovery analysis,
capture-recapture analysis, and distance sampling), as well as for two more general
issues involving estimation methodology, model selection and dissemination of new
data-analytic methods to biological users. In order to emphasize the role of estimation
methods as components of larger processes requiring use of other classes of methods, I
also discuss the evolution of process modeling and decision-theoretic methods used in
the study and management of avian populations.
The EURING meetings and their attendees have played an important role in the development
of quantitative methods. I illustrate this point by claiming that the rapid evolution
over the past few decades of each of the discussed topics can be traced back to seminal
work by a EURING contributor who retired recently. In fact the sensitivity of the growth
rate of methodological knowledge to the contributions of individual researchers has been
extremely large for this person. Retrospective considerations of the work of this
individual lead to a posteriori hypotheses about factors associated with
"high-sensitivity" investigators and teams. Although experimental tests of these
hypotheses are unlikely, some inference may be possible based on predictions and
eventual contributions of investigators using different approaches to the conduct of
science and management.
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